Keynote speakers and publications

Reet Kasepalu

Public Reach and Information Diffusion Across Repeated National Warning Tests

Across Europe, public warning systems increasingly rely on multiple channels to reach populations during emergencies, yet less is known about how these channels are noticed and how information spreads across repeated warning events. This article examines public reach and information diffusion during repeated national warning system tests in Estonia, focusing on the interaction between siren-based warnings, mobile alerts, prior awareness, and situational factors. Drawing on survey data collected following national warning tests, the study analyses which factors shape whether people hear warning sirens, which channel they notice first, and whether mobile alerts are received. The findings also suggest that warning channels may interact rather than operate independently, highlighting the importance of understanding public warning as a multi-channel information environment rather than as a set of separate technologies.

Jana Wrange

Four Faces/Phases of Resilience in Nordic–Baltic Civil Defence 

Across the Nordic-Baltic region, states increasingly utilize the concept of resilience to frame their civil defence strategies, yet there is no overarching understanding of what resilience is and how it is further developed in this context. This article offers a systematic comparative analysis of how resilience is understood and operationalized in the civil defence policies of the Nordic–Baltic states, contributing to the rapidly emerging literature of societal resilience and civil defence. By conceptualizing resilience as both a capacity and a process, the study combines existing resilience typologies with crisis management cycle, and delineates four resilience phases – prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery. Through the analysis of national security strategies and interviews, it then situates different types of resilience capacities within these phases, offering a comprehensive overview of how resilience is conceptualized in civil defence. 

The Role of Strategic Culture in Lesson-Learning from Ukraine in Nordic-Baltic Civil Defence

This article examines how lessons from Ukraine to civil defence are interpreted and adapted through the lens of pre-existing national strategic cultures. It argues that strategic culture shapes which lessons are perceived as relevant and transferable, offering a nuanced conceptualization of strategic culture in relation to civil defence. Meanwhile, it also presumes that shared learning processes may contribute to the emergence of a common regional culture. Focusing empirically on the Nordic and Baltic states, the article analyses post-2022 developments in Nordic-Baltic civil defence through policy documents and interviews with civil protection/defence experts. In doing so, it addresses two main questions: 1) which dimensions of strategic culture are considered most relevant for civil defence policy; and 2) how lesson-drawing from Ukraine has influenced the transformation of a shared Nordic-Baltic culture. 

Stella Polikarpus

ICT-Supported Shelter-Taking Awareness Measurement and Training

“This study explores shelter-taking awareness as a measurable component of crisis resilience. Shelter-taking awareness refers to an individual's understanding of available sheltering options in response to a specific threat, together with awareness of relevant personal, temporal, and spatial circumstances. Study presents an ICT-supported framework for shelter-taking awareness assessment and training through virtual simulation. Existing preparedness approaches often assume that increasing the amount of available information will improve public decision-making; however, in complex information environments, decision quality may depend equally on the ability to recognise which information is relevant to the situation at hand. Drawing on concepts of Actual Situation Awareness, Perceived Situation Awareness, and Information Bias, this research investigates how people assess air-raid situations and make sheltering decisions. The proposed research agenda suggests extending current preparedness models by incorporating relevance bias and the distinction between actual and perceived understanding of a situation. Such an approach may help develop training environments that strengthen citizens' capacity to evaluate information, recognise critical cues, and make appropriate protective decisions under time pressure and uncertainty.”

Katarína Hollá

Enhancing EU Critical Entity Resilience Current State and Lessons Learned from National Risk Assessments under the CER

This article analyses the resilience of critical entities in the European Union in the context of hybrid threats, cross-border interdependencies, and the implementation of the CER Directive. It focuses primarily on the role of national risk assessments, which provide the basis for identifying critical entities, setting priorities, and adopting resilience measures across eleven key sectors. The study highlights persistent methodological fragmentation among Member States, limited comparability of data, insufficient information sharing, and difficulties in assessing cross-sectoral and cross-border interdependencies. The research combines a structured expert survey, systematic analysis of national and institutional documents, and semi-structured consultations with experts. Its aim is to identify national approaches, key implementation challenges, and promising practices that can support the harmonisation of risk assessments and more effective implementation of the CER Directive during the next assessment cycle.

Real-Time Data–Driven Evacuation Modelling for Large-Scale Disasters: 3R Adaptive Evacuation Model

This paper introduces the Reroute–Replan–Retask (3R) Evacuation Readiness Model, a real-time decision-support framework for sustaining large-scale civilian evacuation during conflict-related disruptions. The model integrates dynamic data within an Evacuation System-of-Systems and links OODA cycles to three adaptive response levels: local rerouting, corridor replanning, and cross-modal resource retasking. A hypothetical case study in Rakvere, Estonia, demonstrates its potential to improve decision speed, contingency response, and adaptability when infrastructure and information systems are degraded. The paper identifies key data requirements, operational roles, and avenues for future computational implementation and validation. It also highlights the model’s ability to maintain evacuation continuity when pre-planned routes become unusable.